Modeling circuit mechanisms of opposing cortical responses to visual flow perturbations.

In an ever-changing visual world, animals' survival depends on their ability to perceive and respond to rapidly changing motion cues. The primary visual cortex (V1) is at the forefront of this sensory processing, orchestrating neural responses to perturbations in visual flow. However, the underlying neural mechanisms that lead to distinct cortical responses to such perturbations remain enigmatic. In this study, our objective was to uncover the neural dynamics that govern V1 neurons' responses to visual flow perturbations using a biologically realistic computational model. By subjecting the model to sudden changes in visual input, we observed opposing cortical responses in excitatory layer 2/3 (L2/3) neurons, namely, depolarizing and hyperpolarizing responses. We found that this segregation was primarily driven by the competition between external visual input and recurrent inhibition, particularly within L2/3 and L4. This division was not observed in excitatory L5/6 neurons, suggesting a more prominent role for inhibitory mechanisms in the visual processing of the upper cortical layers. Our findings share similarities with recent experimental studies focusing on the opposing influence of top-down and bottom-up inputs in the mouse primary visual cortex during visual flow perturbations.

On the complementarity of ordinal patterns-based entropy and time asymmetry metrics.

Entropy and time asymmetry are two intertwined aspects of a system's dynamics, with the production of entropy marking a clear direction in the temporal dimension. In the last few years, metrics to quantify both properties in time series have been designed around the same concept, i.e., the use of ordinal patterns. In spite of this, the relationship between these two families of metrics is yet not well understood. In this contribution, we study this problem by constructing an entropy-time asymmetry plane and evaluating it on a large set of synthetic and real-world time series. We show how the two metrics can at times behave independently, the main reason being the presence of patterns with turning points; due to this, they yield complementary information about the underlying systems, and they have different discriminating performance.

Aging in binary-state models: The Threshold model for complex contagion.

We study the non-Markovian effects associated with aging for binary-state dynamics in complex networks. Aging is considered as the property of the agents to be less prone to change their state the longer they have been in the current state, which gives rise to heterogeneous activity patterns. In particular, we analyze aging in the Threshold model, which has been proposed to explain the process of adoption of new technologies. Our analytical approximations give a good description of extensive Monte Carlo simulations in Erdos-Rényi, random-regular and Barabási-Albert networks. While aging does not modify the cascade condition, it slows down the cascade dynamics towards the full-adoption state: the exponential increase of adopters in time from the original model is replaced by a stretched exponential or power law, depending on the aging mechanism. Under several approximations, we give analytical expressions for the cascade condition and for the exponents of the adopters' density growth laws. Beyond random networks, we also describe by Monte Carlo simulations the effects of aging for the Threshold model in a two-dimensional lattice.

Spatial immunization to abate disease spreading in transportation hubs.

Proximity social interactions are crucial for infectious diseases transmission. Crowded agglomerations pose serious risk of triggering superspreading events. Locations like transportation hubs (airports and stations) are designed to optimize logistic efficiency, not to reduce crowding, and are characterized by a constant in and out flow of people. Here, we analyze the paradigmatic example of London Heathrow, one of the busiest European airports. Thanks to a dataset of anonymized individuals' trajectories, we can model the spreading of different diseases to localize the contagion hotspots and to propose a spatial immunization policy targeting them to reduce disease spreading risk. We also detect the most vulnerable destinations to contagions produced at the airport and quantify the benefits of the spatial immunization technique to prevent regional and global disease diffusion. This method is immediately generalizable to train, metro and bus stations and to other facilities such as commercial or convention centers.

Global predictions for the risk of establishment of Pierce's disease of grapevines.

The vector-borne bacterium Xylella fastidiosa is responsible for Pierce's disease (PD), a lethal grapevine disease that originated in the Americas. The international plant trade is expanding the geographic range of this pathogen, posing a new threat to viticulture worldwide. To assess the potential incidence of PD, we have built a dynamic epidemiological model based on the response of 36 grapevine varieties to the pathogen in inoculation assays and on the vectors' distribution when this information is available. Key temperature-driven epidemiological processes, such as PD symptom development and recovery, are mechanistically modelled. Integrating into the model high-resolution spatiotemporal climatic data from 1981 onward and different infectivity (R0) scenarios, we show how the main wine-producing areas thrive mostly in non-risk, transient, or epidemic-risk zones with potentially low growth rates in PD incidence. Epidemic-risk zones with moderate to high growth rates are currently marginal outside the US. However, a global expansion of epidemic-risk zones coupled with small increments in the disease growth rate is projected for 2050. Our study globally downscales the risk of PD establishment while highlighting the importance of considering climate variability, vector distribution, and an invasive criterion as factors to obtain better PD risk maps.

The study of aggression and affiliation motifs in bottlenose dolphins' social networks.

Networks in biology have provided a powerful tool to describe and study very complex biological processes and systems such as animal societies. Social network analysis allows us to assess different processes occurring in animal groups. In the current study, we use this approach to investigate how conflict dynamics and post-conflict interactions shape the social networks of groups of captive bottlenose dolphins. We first examined temporal changes and aggression-affiliation motifs in the observed dolphins' network structure. Using the results of the previous analysis, we built two models that simulate the dynamics of aggression and affiliation in a small dolphin group. The first model is based only on the observed statistics of interactions, whereas the second includes post conflict memory effects as well. We found that the resulting social networks and their most common motifs matched the association patterns observed in wild and captive dolphins. Furthermore, the model with memory was able to capture the observed dynamics of this group of dolphins. Thus, our models suggest the presence and influence of post-conflict behaviors on the structure of captive dolphins' social networks. Therefore, the network approach reveals as an effective method to define animal social networks and study animal sociality. Finally, this approach can have important applications in the management of animal populations in captive settings.

Aging effects in Schelling segregation model.

The Schelling model has become a paradigm in social sciences to explain the emergence of residential spatial segregation, even in the presence of high tolerance to mixed neighborhoods by the side of citizens. In particular, we consider a noisy constrained version of the Schelling model, in which agents maximize its satisfaction, related to the composition of the local neighborhood, by infinite-range movements towards satisfying vacancies. We add to it an aging effect by making the probability of agents to move inversely proportional to the time they have been satisfied in their present location. This mechanism simulates the development of an emotional attachment to a location where an agent has been satisfied for a while. The introduction of aging has several major impacts on the model statics and dynamics: the phase transition between a segregated and a mixed phase of the original model disappears, and we observe segregated states with a high level of agent satisfaction even for high values of tolerance. In addition, the new segregated phase is dynamically characterized by a slow power-law coarsening process similar to a glassy-like dynamics.

Recent advances in urban system science: Models and data.

Cities are characterized by the presence of a dense population with a high potential for interactions between individuals of diverse backgrounds. They appear in parallel to the Neolithic revolution a few millennia ago. The advantages brought in terms of agglomeration for economy, innovation, social and cultural advancements have kept them as a major landmark in recent human history. There are many different aspects to study in urban systems from a scientific point of view, one can concentrate in demography and population evolution, mobility, economic output, land use and urban planning, home accessibility and real estate market, energy and water consumption, waste processing, health, education, integration of minorities, just to name a few. In the last decade, the introduction of communication and information technologies have enormously facilitated the collection of datasets on these and other questions, making possible a more quantitative approach to city science. All these topics have been addressed in many works in the literature, and we do not intend to offer here a systematic review. Instead, we will only provide a brief taste of some of these above-mentioned aspects, which could serve as an introduction to the collection 'Cities as Complex Systems'. Such a non-systematic view will lead us to leave outside many relevant papers, and for this we must apologise.

The world-wide waste web.

Countries globally trade with tons of waste materials every year, some of which are highly hazardous. This trade admits a network representation of the world-wide waste web, with countries as vertices and flows as directed weighted edges. Here we investigate the main properties of this network by tracking 108 categories of wastes interchanged in the period 2001-2019. Although, most of the hazardous waste was traded between developed nations, a disproportionate asymmetry existed in the flow from developed to developing countries. Using a dynamical model, we simulate how waste stress propagates through the network and affects the countries. We identify 28 countries with low Environmental Performance Index that are at high risk of waste congestion. Therefore, they are at threat of improper handling and disposal of hazardous waste. We find evidence of pollution by heavy metals, by volatile organic compounds and/or by persistent organic pollutants, which are used as chemical fingerprints, due to the improper handling of waste in several of these countries.

Impact of urban structure on infectious disease spreading.

The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been holding the world hostage for several years now. Mobility is key to viral spreading and its restriction is the main non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight the virus expansion. Previous works have shown a connection between the structural organization of cities and the movement patterns of their residents. This puts urban centers in the focus of epidemic surveillance and interventions. Here we show that the organization of urban flows has a tremendous impact on disease spreading and on the amenability of different mitigation strategies. By studying anonymous and aggregated intra-urban flows in a variety of cities in the United States and other countries, and a combination of empirical analysis and analytical methods, we demonstrate that the response of cities to epidemic spreading can be roughly classified in two major types according to the overall organization of those flows. Hierarchical cities, where flows are concentrated primarily between mobility hotspots, are particularly vulnerable to the rapid spread of epidemics. Nevertheless, mobility restrictions in such types of cities are very effective in mitigating the spread of a virus. Conversely, in sprawled cities which present many centers of activity, the spread of an epidemic is much slower, but the response to mobility restrictions is much weaker and less effective. Investing resources on early monitoring and prompt ad-hoc interventions in more vulnerable cities may prove helpful in containing and reducing the impact of future pandemics.

Interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact.

Assessing the impact of mobility on epidemic spreading is of crucial importance for understanding the effect of policies like mass quarantines and selective re-openings. While many factors affect disease incidence at a local level, making it more or less homogeneous with respect to other areas, the importance of multi-seeding has often been overlooked. Multi-seeding occurs when several independent (non-clustered) infected individuals arrive at a susceptible population. This can lead to independent outbreaks that spark from distinct areas of the local contact (social) network. Such mechanism has the potential to boost incidence, making control efforts and contact tracing less effective. Here, through a modeling approach we show that the effect produced by the number of initial infections is non-linear on the incidence peak and peak time. When case importations are carried by mobility from an already infected area, this effect is further enhanced by the local demography and underlying mixing patterns: the impact of every seed is larger in smaller populations. Finally, both in the model simulations and the analysis, we show that a multi-seeding effect combined with mobility restrictions can explain the observed spatial heterogeneities in the first wave of COVID-19 incidence and mortality in five European countries. Our results allow us for identifying what we have called epidemic epicenter: an area that shapes incidence and mortality peaks in the entire country. The present work further clarifies the nonlinear effects that mobility can have on the evolution of an epidemic and highlight their relevance for epidemic control.

Modeling financial distress propagation on customer-supplier networks.

Financial networks have been the object of intense quantitative analysis during the last few decades. Their structure and the dynamical processes on top of them are of utmost importance to understand the emergent collective behavior behind economic and financial crises. In this paper, we propose a stylized model to understand the "domino effect" of distress in client-supplier networks. We provide a theoretical analysis of the model, and we apply it to several synthetic networks and a real customer-supplier network, supplied by one of the largest banks in Europe. Besides, the proposed model allows us to investigate possible scenarios for the functioning of the financial distress propagation and to assess the economic health of the full network. The main novelty of this model is the combination of two stochastic terms: an additive noise, accounting by the capability of trading and paying obligations, and a multiplicative noise representing the variations of the market. Both parameters are crucial to determining the maximum default probability and the diffusion process characteristics.

Uncovering the socioeconomic facets of human mobility.

Given the rapid recent trend of urbanization, a better understanding of how urban infrastructure mediates socioeconomic interactions and economic systems is of vital importance. While the accessibility of location-enabled devices as well as large-scale datasets of human activities, has fueled significant advances in our understanding, there is little agreement on the linkage between socioeconomic status and its influence on movement patterns, in particular, the role of inequality. Here, we analyze a heavily aggregated and anonymized summary of global mobility and investigate the relationships between socioeconomic status and mobility across a hundred cities in the US and Brazil. We uncover two types of relationships, finding either a clear connection or little-to-no interdependencies. The former tend to be characterized by low levels of public transportation usage, inequitable access to basic amenities and services, and segregated clusters of communities in terms of income, with the latter class showing the opposite trends. Our findings provide useful lessons in designing urban habitats that serve the larger interests of all inhabitants irrespective of their economic status.

On the importance of trip destination for modelling individual human mobility patterns.

Obtaining insights into human mobility patterns and being able to reproduce them accurately is of the utmost importance in a wide range of applications from public health, to transport and urban planning. Still the relationship between the effort individuals will invest in a trip and the importance of its purpose is not taken into account in individual mobility models that can be found in the recent literature. Here, we address this issue by introducing a model hypothesizing a relation between the importance of a trip and the distance travelled. In most practical cases, quantifying such importance is undoable. We overcome this difficulty by focusing on shopping trips (for which we have empirical data) and by taking the price of items as a proxy. Our model is able to reproduce the long-tailed distribution in travel distances empirically observed and to explain the scaling relationship between distance travelled and item value found in the data.

Migrant mobility flows characterized with digital data.

Monitoring migration flows is crucial to respond to humanitarian crisis and to design efficient policies. This information usually comes from surveys and border controls, but timely accessibility and methodological concerns reduce its usefulness. Here, we propose a method to detect migration flows worldwide using geolocated Twitter data. We focus on the migration crisis in Venezuela and show that the calculated flows are consistent with official statistics at country level. Our method is versatile and far-reaching, as it can be used to study different features of migration as preferred routes, settlement areas, mobility through several countries, spatial integration in cities, etc. It provides finer geographical and temporal resolutions, allowing the exploration of issues not contemplated in official records. It is our hope that these new sources of information can complement official ones, helping authorities and humanitarian organizations to better assess when and where to intervene on the ground.

Scaling in the recovery of urban transportation systems from massive events.

Public transportation is a fundamental infrastructure for life in cities. Although its capacity is prepared for daily demand, congestion may rise when huge crowds gather in demonstrations, concerts or sport events. In this work, we study the robustness of public transportation networks by means of a stylized model mimicking individual mobility through the system. We find scaling relations in the delay suffered by both event participants and other citizens doing their usual traveling in the background. The delay is a function of the number of participants and the event location. The model is solved analytically in lattices proving the existence of scaling relations and the connection of their exponents to the local dimension. Thereafter, extensive and systematic simulations in eight worldwide cities reveal that a newly proposed measure of local dimension explains the exponents found in the network recovery. Our methodology allows to dynamically probe the local dimensionality of a transportation network and identify the most vulnerable spots in cities for the celebration of massive events.

Hierarchical organization of urban mobility and its connection with city livability.

The recent trend of rapid urbanization makes it imperative to understand urban characteristics such as infrastructure, population distribution, jobs, and services that play a key role in urban livability and sustainability. A healthy debate exists on what constitutes optimal structure regarding livability in cities, interpolating, for instance, between mono- and poly-centric organization. Here anonymous and aggregated flows generated from three hundred million users, opted-in to Location History, are used to extract global Intra-urban trips. We develop a metric that allows us to classify cities and to establish a connection between mobility organization and key urban indicators. We demonstrate that cities with strong hierarchical mobility structure display an extensive use of public transport, higher levels of walkability, lower pollutant emissions per capita and better health indicators. Our framework outperforms previous metrics, is highly scalable and can be deployed with little cost, even in areas without resources for traditional data collection.

Field theory for recurrent mobility.

Understanding human mobility is crucial for applications such as forecasting epidemic spreading, planning transport infrastructure and urbanism in general. While, traditionally, mobility information has been collected via surveys, the pervasive adoption of mobile technologies has brought a wealth of (real time) data. The easy access to this information opens the door to study theoretical questions so far unexplored. In this work, we show for a series of worldwide cities that commuting daily flows can be mapped into a well behaved vector field, fulfilling the divergence theorem and which is, besides, irrotational. This property allows us to define a potential for the field that can become a major instrument to determine separate mobility basins and discern contiguous urban areas. We also show that empirical fluxes and potentials can be well reproduced and analytically characterized using the so-called gravity model, while other models based on intervening opportunities have serious difficulties.

Mapping the Americanization of English in space and time.

As global political preeminence gradually shifted from the United Kingdom to the United States, so did the capacity to culturally influence the rest of the world. In this work, we analyze how the world-wide varieties of written English are evolving. We study both the spatial and temporal variations of vocabulary and spelling of English using a large corpus of geolocated tweets and the Google Books datasets corresponding to books published in the US and the UK. The advantage of our approach is that we can address both standard written language (Google Books) and the more colloquial forms of microblogging messages (Twitter). We find that American English is the dominant form of English outside the UK and that its influence is felt even within the UK borders. Finally, we analyze how this trend has evolved over time and the impact that some cultural events have had in shaping it.